Essays · Movies

2019 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

Will one film sweep Oscar night’s two biggest categories, or will they split? We break it down.
Oscars Picture Director
By  · Published on February 23rd, 2019

By the time the 2019 Oscars are heading toward their climax on Sunday night, we may already have a good idea who is going to win Best Director and what is going to win Best Picture. For instance, if Cold War wins Best Foreign Language Film, perhaps that means Roma really is going to take Best Picture. If The Favourite or Vice start to run away with smaller awards, does that mean they can sneak in? We looked at these scenarios and more in formulating our predictions for what is going to win on Oscar night 2019.

Below you’ll find our breakdowns and predictions for Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Picture

Yalitza Aparicio Roma

Anna Swanson: The Favourite is an imaginative and emotionally complex drama about devotion, ambition, and love. It displays some of the best performances of the year and is unlike any period piece we’ve seen in a long time. While it would’ve been really nice to have If Beale Street Could Talk or First Reformed in this category to root for, The Favourite isn’t a bad pick at all. So it’s a shame it doesn’t stand a chance. In fact, despite all the nominations The Favourite has received, it would be disappointing but not totally surprising if the film went home empty handed.

Roma, on the other hand, is the clear frontrunner. The Academy loves Alfonso Cuaron and the narrative appeal of a foreign film — especially this foreign film — finally taking home Hollywood’s highest honor is too good to pass up. Roma has won a lot of people over and many cite it as an emotional cinematic odyssey. As with any of the nominated films, there isn’t a total consensus and there are some, myself included, who would argue the film is a beautiful sheen covering a hollow character study, but for the most part Roma has proven to be a popular and beloved nominee this year. Most importantly, the film has avoided controversy, has the narrative working in its favor, and it stands a damn good chance of taking home the Best Picture Oscar on Sunday night.

What should win: The Favourite
What will win: Roma

Best Director


Neil Miller: This year’s Best Director group is a real bro-down. Which is a shame, because there were so many wonderful movies directed by the other 50% of the population last year. Now that we’ve said that, let’s talk about this year’s all-male revue:

Pawel Pawlikowski directed the prettiest film of the bunch (Cold War) and is just happy to be here. Yorgos Lanthimos is in a similar boat with The Favourite. Something tells me both of them will be back again in the future. Adam McKay directed the most energetic and roaring film of the bunch (Vice) but unless The Academy is about to do a hilarious heel-turn and give Vice a bunch of awards, I don’t see him winning. Alfonso Cuaron has been here before and Roma is a spectacular film. He might just win Best Director and Best Cinematography and make history.

But let’s talk about Spike Lee. It feels like Spike is due. And I know he received an honorary Oscar in 2016, but it’s not the same. He’s been worthy of it numerous times. And Blackkklansman is a movie that resonates in big ways. It’s time.

Who should win: Spike Lee
Who will win: Spike Lee

To read our breakdowns and analysis of every one of this year’s categories, follow the links below:

To follow our teams live-tweets of the Oscars, check out either @OnePerfectShot or @rejectnation.


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