There are a lot of fan favorites in the writing categories at this year’s Oscars, but none of them are going to win, say our predictions.

In this year’s writing categories — home of both the Adapted and Original Screenplay awards — there are a number of films and writers that have captured the love of fans across the Internet. The Original Screenplay category has some of the most mainstream favorites, including Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and The Big Sick team Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon. The Adapted Screenplay category includes Logan, perhaps one of the great superhero/comic-based movies of all-time.

Here’s the thing: none of those favorites are going to win.

Are you ready to watch Aaron Sorkin sneak in and steal an Oscar this year? Get ready for it, because that’s what our experts say is about to happen.

Red Dots

Best Adapted Screenplay

Mollys Game

Rob Hunter: It may seem trite, but being nominated for an Oscar is an undeniably immense accomplishment, and sometimes that’s already more than a film/filmmaker can hope for. To that end, both The Disaster Artist (written by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber) and Logan (written by James Mangold, Scott Frank, and Michael Green) should be very proud of themselves. Both are good films — the latter’s even pretty great — but neither exude the weight required. By contrast, Mudbound (written by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees) is beautifully burdened by its heaviness, and James Ivory’s Call Me By Your Name captures integral themes and feelings with epic grace. Either of these two might take the prize, and it would be well-deserved, but the award will instead land in Aaron Sorkin’s lap for Molly’s Game. The film’s a bit too overstuffed, but Sorkin’s dialogue weaves a verbal magic that odds are will net him a second Oscar after 2011’s The Social Network.

Who should win: Call Me By Your Name

Who will win: Molly’s Game

Red Dots

Best Original Screenplay

Three Billboards

Rob Hunter: Four of this year’s nominees are also Best Picture contenders, and that leaves The Big Sick (written by Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani) as the odd duck out. It’s well-loved, but it seems far removed from the conversation. The Shape of Water is set to have a big night, but hopefully, a win for its wonky and rushed screenplay (written by Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor) isn’t part of the wave. The same goes for Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which, for all of its strengths (mostly focused in the area of acting) has one hell of a sloppy and ugly script. The last two nominees are the category’s strongest with both Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird and Jordan Peele’s Get Out telling fresh stories well. The latter is ultimately the more layered and involved of the two, though, which is more than enough to earn it the prize it will most likely lose.

Who should win: Get Out

Who will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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