Oscar Predictions

Ben Affleck Globes

With painted-on Tuxedos and a foolish bet about who can accurately predict more Oscar winners, we set out to discuss the Academy Awards with the lucky benefit of hindsight. We’ll be borrowing expertise from Guy Lodge of HitFix’s In Contention blog for a look into how this year shapes up (and what the future may bring). Plus, one of us is going to be drunkenly reciting the opening monologue from Patton next week. It all comes down to who wins for Best Achievement in Costume Design. Download Episode #7

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In a couple of hours, we’ll start live-blogging our little hearts out as Neil pretends to know what “chiffon” is, and after the red carpet, we’ll sink into that fifth drink while reveling in the sheer majesty of the 2012 Academy Awards. Stifling cynicism can take a taxi outta town for a while, because no matter what, if you want to see it, there’s still something magical about this night. Part of that magic is being completely wrong. We’re confident now, but when the winners are announced, there’s always the tiny possibility of a big surprise. So who did you put down in your office pool to take home gold tonight? Our team spent all week tossing out their best analyses, and it all comes down to this. Here’s who we picked. Would you take us up on these bets?

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Oscar 2012 Predictions: Best Actor

Each year, there’s a certain group of people who bemoan the Oscars (and pretty much every other organization’s awards) for being nothing but a popularity contest. They’re right, of course, but the Oscars also helps set the standard for quality films… at least quality films from those who are popular in the industry. However, when it comes to the Academy Award for Best Actor, it’s probably the biggest popularity contest out there (only to be matched by the battle for the Best Actress Oscar, of course). It’s not just about who gave the most solid performance in a motion picture, but also who schmoozes the best at parties and on the red carpet. These awards are also often sewn up early and are less unpredictable than the lower profile awards for Costume Design and Sound Editing (Jane Eyre and Transformers represent, yo!). Still, as one of the “big six” awards, Best Actor is an important one. A nomination alone can breathe new life into a career. Just look at what it did for John Travolta in the mid-90s. Likewise, winning an award can help make you a superstar, like it did for Nicolas Cage around the same time. (Of course, now the Academy claims no responsibility for Cage’s more recent career choices.) In any respect, this year’s race for Best Actor presents a slate of great performances from newcomers and veterans alike, even if it’ll all be a popularity contest in the end. Read on for the nominations and my […]

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Archer gets Justified

What is Movie News After Dark? It’s a nightly collection of movie news, notes and links that will make you very happy that you decided to stop and take a look at what’s going on. Seriously, it’s the bringer of joy. We begin tonight with a shot from this evening’s episode of Archer, which has mixed a little bit of Justified into its plot-lines. The AV Club has begun a campaign for a cross-over comic that would team Sterling Archer with Raylan Givens. I support this idea 100%.

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Oscar 2012 Predictions: Best Original Song

While my feelings on the Best Original Song nominees (and my disappointment in the lack of songs nominated) are pretty clear, the two songs that have been nominated do tap into those universal feelings of figuring out who you truly are and where you truly belong. And come Sunday, February 26th, one of these songs will be an Academy Award winner. As we get closer to the big day, we here at FSR wanted to take a moment to give the nominees a final look and make our predictions on what should happen along with what we think will happen. Read on for the nominations and my predicted winner in red…

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Oscar 2012 Predictions: Best Animated Film

The Best Animated Feature category first appeared in 2001 (Shrek was the winner), and a cartoon has taken home the prize every year since. Crazy, right? And while the Pixar juggernaut has won this category four years running, their decision to focus on profit with Cars 2 instead of quality has cost them the nomination. Their absence has left the field wide open, and for only the third time in the past decade there are five nominees vying for the award. Unlike some Academy Award categories, this year’s nominees for Best Animated Feature actually managed to include the year’s best animated feature. Even better? It’s going to win. The nominees are listed below with my predicted winner in red…

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No matter how ambivalent this year’s Oscars might make everyone, trying to guess the winners is almost always intriguing. It’s usually broken down by factors such as prior victories in other awards shows, likeability of the nominee,what’s being talked about the most, what made more money…you know, characteristics that actually speak nothing about the film itself or how good it is. Yet, regardless, it’s still fun. Though, just because I can’t quantify the value of specific factors to pick a winner doesn’t necessarily mean that a quantifiable formula does not exist in terms of systematically predicting who will win; and if there was going to be someone to develop such a formula then it was most likely going to come from a student at Harvard because (as one of last year’s nominees taught us) people love math there. They love it. Indeed though, Harvard student Ben Zauzmer has developed a formula for calculating who will walk away with a statuette this Sunday and posted those math-based Oscar predictions on his blog.

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On the eve of the 2012 Oscars, we speak with writer/director Michael R. Roskam – the mind behind Best Foreign Nominee Bullhead (Belgium). Plus, we get to know the mystery nominee, Albert Nobbs, with producer Bonnie Curtis to learn about its secret geek credibility. What’s more, I toss out my predictions for this year’s winners and give you the chance to win fabulous prizes by out-guessing me. Download This Episode

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This article is part of our Oscar Week Series, where you will find breakdowns and predictions for all of the major categories. As you may know, Robert Ebert is promising $100,000 to anyone who can predict every single Oscar win this year. Going 24 for 24 is an impressive feat, unless you have an ethically questionable friend that works at PricewaterhouseCoopers. But, if you have that, why would you be wasting your time on a measly $100,000? Exactly. I don’t have that friend, but I have a graphing calculator and a lot of free time, so I came up with the predictions that I’ll be submitting to Ebert’s contest. I’d better not get a subscription to Red Book or something  for sharing my email information with him. Check out who I think will win the awards on Sunday (written in bold), tell me why I’m dead wrong, and put your money where your mouth is by entering the contest yourself.

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Oscar Picks 2008

And we’ve got a bonus video of our own Kevin Carr talking Oscars on local TV.

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The staff of Film School Rejects finally gives you their predictions for tomorrow night’s big event…

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