Welcome to another weekend of movies here at the Reject Report, and it sure looks like it’s shaping up to be another weekend for Alice in Wonderland to dominate the box office. Not that there isn’t going to be plenty of competition out there this week, looking to knock Alice off. Four new movies will be rolling out in wide release this weekend: Green Zone, Our Family Wedding, Remember Me and She’s Out of My League.
After last weekend’s mammoth opening for Alice, I am expecting a big drop this week. Let’s face reality; it’s really younger audiences that are interested in this movie. When that happens, the drops tend to be pretty pronounced. My guess is that everyone who was going to see it went last weekend, and we may see a drop of over 50 percent, down to $55 million. Even if it’s a really disastrous drop down to $40 million or so, I think this flick is still assured of a first-place finish, no matter what. I just don’t see any of these other contenders beating that.
Looking at the weekend’s movies: Our Family Wedding is a comedy rolling out in over 1,600 locations, starring Forest Whitaker, America Ferrera and Carlos Mencia, and it focuses on the stress and strife leading up to the big wedding.
It seems like this flick is going to have a low profile compared to these other new movies this weekend, and I am looking at a haul of around $7 million.
Next up is Remember Me, a PG-13 romance movie starring Robert Pattinson. (AAAHHH!!!!! Robert Pattinson!!!) So just based on that, the movie should make a lot of money, right? Not if it’s only on 2,200 screens, it won’t. Also in the cast are Emilie de Ravin, Pierce Brosnan and Chris Cooper, among others.
I don’t know what to make of the box office for this movie. I think a lot of the Twilight freaks may end up going just based on the casting, but without this guy in the movie I think the box office falls flat on its face. Ny feeling is it will get $13 million.
Next is She’s Out of My League, rolling out in almost 3,000 theaters and starring Jay Baruchel, Alice Eve and Mike Vogel. Baruchel plays this hopeless, insecure dude who winds up dating a hot chick who, as they say, is out of his league.
Here’s my issue with the movie: it looks lame. Very lame. For whatever reason it looks exactly like the kind of retread comedy that we’ve seen before. I dunno how many “loser-tries-to-score-with-a-babe” movies we have seen over the years, but it’s a lot of them, and many of them aren’t very good. It just looks like a stale idea to me. So I am figuring it will only rake in $10 million and then die a sad death at the box office.
Finally, we have Green Zone, which is in over 3,000 theaters this weekend for what will be the widest release of the new releases. Matt Damon stars in this Paul Greengrass-directed thriller that takes place in the international Green Zone in Iraq. Also in the cast are Amy Ryan, Jason Isaacs, Brendan Gleeson and Greg Kinnear.
This looks likely to get the most audience of any of the new movies this weekend, but that’s all you can say for it. Based on the tracking I see, audiences are kind of divided on this movie: they either love it or hate it. The critics seem divided as well. So my guess is $20 million, which seems to be the default total for movies that get that sort of reaction.
So there you have it — a typical March weekend for the four new movies and another likely domination for Alice in Wonderland. At least, that is what I expect will happen this weekend. If Alice fails to repeat on top, I’ll eat my hat.
The likely finish as I see it:
- Alice in Wonderland $55 million
- Green Zone $20 million
- Remember Me $13 million
- She’s Out of My League $10 million
- Shutter Island $8.5 million
- Our Family Wedding $7 million
- Brooklyn’s Finest $6.8 million
- Avatar $6.2 million
- Cop Out $4.5 million
- The Crazies $3.5 million
May I also add that we can expect NO Oscar bounce for Avatar, given its limited haul of hardware at the Academy Awards. As for The Hurt Locker, it is getting hardly any distribution even though it is the Academy’s Best Picture of the Year. It’s in just over 300 theaters, so I don’t expect it to get into the Top Ten at all. It’s estimated haul so far is around $14.7 million. There are movies that make that much money in one night!!
For a movie that had so much acclaim even before the Oscars were handed out, it really has had a really hard time getting people out to see it. Maybe it will get some sort of Oscar bounce this weekend, but I don’t think it will be nearly enough for it to make any impact at the box office, especially since the movie is already out on DVD.
So that’s it for now! We’ll see what happens this weekend with Alice and the rest of these movies here at the Reject Report!