The Reject Report Who Lived: One Final ‘Harry Potter’ Box Office Prediction

The Reject ReportThe Reject Report who lived now comes to die. Wait, that’s not right. This isn’t the last Reject Report. It’s just the last one wherein we’ll be talking about a new Harry Potter movie. I know. Sadness entered my soul just typing that, too. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 in 3D and IMAX All Across the United States of America and in Certain Parts of the Great Land of Canada – I think that’s the full title now – hits theaters this Friday. Millions upon millions of eyeballs will be gushing tears as the credits roll, but Warner Brother will be hap-hap-happy about each and every one of them. Not because of the disinfecting costs on all the 3D glasses but because it’s sure to be another glowing mark in their box office books. What’s causing all this Harry Potter success? Magic. That’s what. And don’t you question it. Let’s take a look at just how badly HPATDHP2I3DAIAATUSOAAICPOTGLOC is going to trounce the competition.

Big Hitters

Yes, we all know Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 is going to be #1 with a jagged lightning bolt this weekend. Every other film out there might as well be sweating like a horcrux in church. Is that euphemism right? But how well is this last in the Harry Potter saga going to do? How many records will it break. Evidently, it’s already working on it. Deathly Hallows 2 has already sold $32 million in advance ticket sales. It’s also being shown on over 11,000 screens across America, a new record for the franchise, though it doesn’t seem likely to best Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End’s 11,500 screen count.

So let’s talk dollars. For establishing and comparative purposes, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone opened with $90.2m in November 2001. Deathly Hallows 2 looked at that and said, “Lame!”. Deathly Hallows 1, released this past November, brought in $125m in its opening weekend. Deathly Hallows 2 saw this and cried, “Weak!”. So just how big is this movie going to open? Could it have the all-time biggest opening weekend in history? Chances are decent. The current holder of this particular record is The Dark Knight, which brought Warner Brothers $158.4m in domestic sales. Deathly Hallows 2 could very well beat even that.

It has 3D dollars on its side, plus the idea that it’s the last Harry Potter film, a film we’ve been building to for nearly 10 years, is a statement unto itself. Some analysts are going conservative and putting the film’s opening weekend in the $130-140m range. I say, “Why not?” and predict it will be The Dark Knight‘s opening. It’s not like I’ve got any personal money invested in this. Plus it seems like a good bet. Regardless of who’s right and who’s wrong come Sunday, the collective Warner Brothers is going to have a grin plastered on its face from ear to ear. The rest of us will be sobbing, because as we all know, everyone dies. Okay. Got a little dark there.

No funnin’. No cute little clips that play into Harry Potter. Just feast your eyes on the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 trailer right here. Also, take a drink any time Voldemort goes, “NYAAAAAHHHH!”

Poor Eeyore. Six years since he and his friends have a movie in theaters, and Disney makes the bright idea of counter-programming it against the last Harry Potter movie. Good thinking, Disney. Maybe their rationale is when all the screens showing Harry Potter sell out, people will settle for Winnie the Pooh. Sure. I think I remember Snoop Dogg having the same rationale about The Wash opening against Sorcerer’s Stone. Good thinking, Snoop. The Wash opened with $2.8m. Winnie the Pooh will favor better than this. It could even get into the double digits. That’s right, people. I’m comparing Winnie the Pooh to The Wash. Put that in your double feature queue and roll it. Sorry, Eeyore. Back on the Paxil with you.

Just to solidify my point, here’s the trailer for The Wash. And before you ask, no, I have no shame.


Not only is nothing going to even come close to Deathly Hallows Part 2 this weekend, the combined total of every other film in release this weekend won’t add up to what the Harry Potter makes. Hey, it’s a short Familiarities section this week, but who would we really be kidding to even bother mentioning anyone else?

Little Openers

For all you Muggles out there, here’s what’s opening in limited release this weekend. Tabloid opening in select cities, Daylight opening in New York City, Salvation Boulevard opening in select cities, Snow Flower and the Secret Fan opening in select cities, Life, Above All opening in New York and L.A.,  Lucky opening in New York and L.A., and The Undefeated opening in select cities.

Here’s how the weekend is shaping up:

  1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $164.2m NEW
  2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $23.5m (-49.9%)
  3. Horrible Bosses – $17.4m (-38.5%)
  4. Winnie the Pooh – $11.3m NEW
  5. Zookeeper – $9.6m (-52%)
  6. Cars 2 – $8.4m (-44.6%)
  7. Bad Teacher – $5.2m (-41.5%)
  8. Super 8 – $2.8m (-41%)
  9. Larry Crowne – $2.5m (-56.7%)
  10. Monte Carlo -$2m (-45.4%)

$246.9m? That’s it? I mean, sure, it’ll be the biggest three-day haul for the top 10 since Christmas 2009 when Avatar was in its second weekend. But I was expecting something even grander. Of course, maybe I should back down a bit. Deathly Hallows 2 is going to be massive, but maybe those other box office analysts know a thing or two then they say it won’t beat out The Dark Knight. Maybe I should go a little subdued with my numbers. Maybe I’m wrong.


Editor’s Note: Jeremy had to be drugged and carted off for evaluation. He might be back on Sunday to go over the weekend numbers.

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Jeremy's been writing about movies for a good, 15 years, starting with the film review column of his high school newspaper. He stands proud as the first person in his high school to have seen (and recommend) Pulp Fiction. Jeremy went on to get a B.A. in Cinema and Photography with a minor in journalism. His experience and knowledge of film is aided by the list of 6600 films he has seen in his life (so far). Jeremy's belief is that there are no bad films, just unrealized possibilities. Except Batman and Robin. That shit was awful.

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