The Reject Report Takes a Bite Out of New Moon


Welcome to this weekend’s Reject Report where we once again look into the crystal ball to figure out what the domestic gross is going to be. We are in for a very busy next several days of box office activity. A week from now is the U.S. Thanksgiving, so we will see four flicks go wide on Wednesday in advance of that holiday period. This weekend we have three movies going wide: The Blind Side, Planet 51, and you guessed it, The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Based on the coverage I’ve seen on TV, though, it’s as if New Moon is the only movie out there, because that’s all that anyone is talking about.

Before we talk about New Moon, I will start off with the other movies rolling out this week beginning with Planet 51. This is an animated feature rolling out in about 3,000 theaters, and its about this astronaut named “Chuck” Baker who finds himself on Planet 51 and ends up being the “alien”. Fun stuff. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is Chuck, and folks like Jessica Biel, Justin Long, Gary Oldman, Seann William Scott and others provide voices. Sony Pictures is releasing this flick.

Watch the Planet 51 trailer:

My guess is that this movie is going to get swamped. Instead of people thinking about Planet 51, people are going ape over New Moon. I think this flick is going for the counter-programming crowd so I am anticipating something in the $14 million range.

Next is The Blind Side, featuring a very blond Sandra Bullock — and also Tim McGraw. The movie is based on the 2006 book “The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game” by Michael Lewis. It’s the story of Michael Oher, a young African American who rises from homelessness and poverty to become an All-American offensive left tackle in college football. Quinton Aaron plays Oger, and Bullock and McGraw play the family who takes him in.

Watch The Blind Side trailer:

My feeling is that this flick is probably headed for less than Planet 51, in the $13 million range — though I never count out Sandra Bullock to outperform at theaters these days. It’s rolling out in a few more theaters than Planet 51 is, so I’m expecting these two to do fairly even business, but for whatever reason football movies don’t seem to really do booming business at the box office. I’m just thinking back to how poorly Leatherheads did when it came out. That’s just my feeling. Besides, a lot of football fans would rather be home watching football than going to see a football movie. My two cents.

Finally, on to The Twilight Saga: New Moon and there isn’t much more than I can say that hasn’t already been said. Maybe the less said by me the better, because I find these Twilight fans to be absolutely crazy and maybe even evil, some of them.

This is the return of the vampire love story, played again by actors Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson. These two have been all over the magazines and the press is all over them, which tells you all you need to know about the obsession level of the people who are hooked on this franchise.

Watch the Twilight: New Moon trailer:

Now, already Fandango and have reported that presales of New Moon have broken the record for sellouts already and ranks as the Number One advance seller of all time — ahead of The Dark Knight, Transformers 2, and these other blockbusters. The record for pre-sold sellouts was actually held by Star Wars Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith, and as of Wednesday New Moon has that movie all beat with 2,100 sellouts.

The midnight shows are, from what I can tell, sold out all over the place. The folks at Summit Entertainment, from what I’ve read, are deeply worried about all the talk of sellouts and are worried that will discourage people from fighting the lineups to see the movie, as they say there are still plenty of tickets available.

Now, I’ve heard all this hype before from these online ticket sellers about these upcoming movies, with these claims a movie was going to be a bigger hit than it actually turned out to be — but I happen to believe New Moon is going to be a huge, huge hit. Bigger than the last Twilight, even. I am predicting $100 million for New Moon.

That much?! Really? Yes, I think so. As I said, these Twilight fans are crazy for this movie, and there seem to be a lot of them. Get ready to see this movie clean up right through the holiday next week.

My prediction for this weekend is as follows:

  1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon $100 million
  2. 2012 $29 million
  3. A Christmas Carol $15 million
  4. Planet 51 $14 million
  5. The Blind Side $13 million
  6. Precious $9 million
  7. The Men Who Stare at Goats $3.6 million
  8. Michael Jackson’s This Is It $3 million
  9. Couples Retreat $2.5 million
  10. Paranormal Activity $2.1 million

That’s it for now! See you later this weekend when we count up all the loot that New Moon made and see what records went by the wayside — right here with the Box Office Results edition of the Reject Report.

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