Welcome to an Easter Weekend edition of the Reject Report, and forgive me for my utter lack of enthusiasm. As you know, Hannah Montana: The Movie is the big new movie that is rolling out in theaters this weekend, and I am not a fan of Hannah Montana, and I don’t know any friends of mine who like Hannah Montana, and I don’t know any enemies of mine who like Hannah Montana, either. Yet a lot of people seem to think this movie will stand a good shot of taking down Fast and Furious this weekend at the box office.
Now, I should give an update on how Fast and Furious did in its opening weekend. The initial report was that it was going to bring in $72 million and set the spring box office opening record. Well, in the end the final number was only $70.9 million — which still is good enough to set the spring record over 300, but only by a narrow margin.
Anyway, since the weekend ended I’ve noticed that Fast and Furious has started to drop. On Wednesday its numbers were running narrowly ahead of Monsters vs. Aliens. I’m talking about only a $700,000 margin here. I’m convinced Fast and Furious is already sinking fast, and we could be looking at another one of these situations where a movie opens huge and then drops like a rock the next weekend. I think Fast and Furious might only get $29 million this weekend, which leaves it wide open for Hannah Montana to win the weekend with all these kids and soccer moms showing up.
But there are other movies rolling out and one of them is Observe and Report, starring the red-hot Seth Rogen. From the sounds of it, this one seems to have a similar plot to Paul Blart: Mall Cop, except it’s supposed to be funny. Here, Rogen plays a mall security guard who tries to stop a flasher from flashing the mall. When he can’t nab the culprit a detective played by Ray Liotta comes on the scene, seeking to nab the guy for the police. Michael Pena and Anna Faris also star.
You know, as much as I hate to do this, I am going to have to say this movie makes it all the way up to $23 million, and here’s why: Seth Rogen is hot with the public right now. And this is a film that is so similar to Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which was a huge freaking hit. So that leads me to believe people will actually get out and see this one. As well, the reviews seem to suggest this won’t be a total piece of junk. But I think the real reason it’ll do not too badly is because there’s not much else out there for people over the age of 12. Seriously: there’s Hannah Montana, Monsters vs. Aliens — you get the picture. It’s rolling out in about 2,700 theaters.
Next is Dragonball: Evolution which stars Justin Chatwin, Emmy Rossum, Jamie Chung and Chow Yun Fat. It is based on the popular manga comic by Akira Toriyama, which was also turned into a anime TV show. So this movie version is an adaptation of all that, and I don’t know whether it will succeed on the screen. I’ve heard a lot of bad reviews for this flick.
My prediction here is $9 million for Dragonball:Evolution. It’s only in 2,100 theaters and the competition is pretty steep, and the buzz isn’t the greatest. In fact, I doubt it would finish Number One even if the buzz were good, because of the theater count. Anyway, that’s what I see for Dragonball: Evolution.
Now we come to Hannah Montana: The Movie, which is distinguished from the movie that opened last year — Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. That movie was in 3-D and was marketed as a one-week-only event in a limited number of theaters. This, however, is just another regular movie in wide release with a story and a plot that’s based on the hit TV show. It’s rolling out in 3,100 theaters. So you may see more people turning up for this latest effort than for the 3-D showing last year that opened at $29 million.
I’m not going to waste any more time talking about Hannah Montana. Suffice it to say that I’m not going to see it, and I don’t know any of my friends who have any intention of going to see it. I wonder if the Hannah Montana phenomenon is over. We’ll see by the end of the weekend. From what I gather, this flick led Internet ticket sales this week, but nobody is predicting a blockbuster. In fact there’s still a lot of people who think it might even wind up behind Fast and Furious. Based on what I know about the online sales, though, I have a feeling Hannah Montana will take the weekend, but by only a narrow margin. As I have stated, I believe Fast and Furious is going to drop by a rock this weekend, and that will be why Hannah Montana wins. It won’t be because of any pent-up demand for this movie. I think Disney is simply milking the franchise for all its worth before all these kids grow up and get totally fed up with Hannah Montana, Miley Cyrus, Billy Ray Cyrus and everyone else.
$30 million is my estimate for the weekend: Miley wins by default over Vin Diesel.
My fearless forecast:
- Hannah Montana: The Movie $30 million
- Fast and Furious $29 million
- Observe and Report $23 million
- Monsters vs. Aliens $21 million
- Dragonball: Evolution $9 million
- The Haunting in Connecticut $5.7 million
- Knowing $5.4 million
- I Love You, Man $5.3 million
- Adventureland $3.8 million
- Duplicity $3 million
To be honest with you, I really don’t care who wins. That is how unenthused I am about the movies at the top. If Hannah Montana loses out to that mindless Fast and Furious movie, well, so be it. This weekend, I just do not care.
That’s all for now. Back at weekend’s end with the results here at The Reject Report.