The Reject ReportRed punch. Green punch. Chilled punch. Spiked punch. We’re big big fans of all kinds of punch here at the Reject Report. We also really like suckers. Just in case anyone out there is in the mood to send us a package of goodies.

Sucker Punch, on the other hand, we’re not so sure about. It’s already getting a “love or hate” stench about it, but how that results in box office dollars is another matter entirely. It’s sure to be #1 this weekend, but by how much will take a bit of analysis. Check out how we see it and the other films playing out this weekend. And a preemptive thanks for all the punch and suckers you’re all going to send.

BIG HITTERS

Let’s run through the list, shall we? Giant Samurai statues. Dragons. Zombies. Mech Robots. Brothels. Scott Glenn. Any of that do anything for you? Warner Brothers and Zack Snyder are hoping all of those converge and result in a massive intake of cash this weekend. There’s a good chance of that, too. Snyder has never had a film debut to less than $16.1 million, and 300 and Watchmen, the two films that solidified the Zack Snyder style, opened with $70.8 million and $55.2 million, respectively.

Granted those were R-rated films, but they were also based on popular graphic novels. There was a built-in fan-base to them, something Sucker Punch doesn’t really have. What Sucker Punch does have going for it is the Snyder name, the cornucopia of comic geek imagery listed above – yes, we include Scott Glenn in that – and a PG-13 rating. The negative buzz from the critics might stifle the opening numbers. Sucker Punch currently holds a 26% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Nonetheless, we’re likely looking at a mid-$30 million opening here.

Get a smattering of that awesome list with the Sucker Punch trailer right here. Scott Glenn’s in there, too. Okay, I’m obsessed.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules also opens wide this weekend. Despite being based on a popular book series, it’s a sequel that could very well end up being the kid comedy version of the Saw franchise. Expect one new Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie every March until they stop making money. This one is likely to do as well if not slightly better than its predecessor. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you in six years when Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3-D promises to be the last. And we won’t believe it.

FAMILIARITIES

Bradley Cooper proved he was quite limitless last weekend. Wocka Wocka Wocka. It’ll be an interesting battle for the #3 spot this weekend behind the two new films. Rango had a reasonable second weekend drop, and will have something in the 30-35% range again. If it has the minimal amount of drop here and Limitless hits the standard 45-50%, Rango could take it. It’s all a superiority contest, anyway. It really doesn’t matter who gets #3 and who gets #4. They’re both going to have decent supplemental weekends here, and Rango is sure to break the $100-million barrier, too.

Jane Eyre is likely to have a decent weekend, as well, as it expands to 90 screen nationally. If it’s able to hold onto the $17,000 per screen average it picked up last weekend, it will be able to bring in over $1 million now. Don’t expect that, but it’s something to watch.

LITTLE OPENERS

Opening in limited release are: Potiche opening in New York and L.A.; The 5th Quarter – That’s right. That’s a Myspace page. – opening in Winstom-Salem, North Carolina; Peep World opening in select cities; White Irish Drinkers opening in select cities; and My Perestroika opening in New York City.

Here’s is how the weekend is shaping up:

  1. Sucker Punch – $35.2m NEW
  2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules – $23.7m NEW
  3. Limitless – $10m (-46.8%)
  4. Rango – $9.7m (-35%)
  5. The Lincoln Lawyer – $7.3m (-44.6%)
  6. Paul – $6.6m (-49%)
  7. Battle: Los Angeles – $6m (-48.5%)
  8. Mars Needs Moms – $3.7m (-30.1%)
  9. Red Riding Hood – $3.3m (-52.2%)
  10. The Adjustment Bureau – $2.8m (-49.9%)

That’s $108.3 million for the top 10 up 11.5% from last weekend. That’s with the proviso Sucker Punch and Diary of a Wimpy Kid perform as well as anticipated. The poor critical response could lessen the numbers for the former, but it isn’t likely to have that much of an impact. If the film is able to bring in as much as expected, it will be the second $35+ million opening for a film this March. The notion of the Summer movie season creeping further up into April and March could very well be on the horizon, and it will likely be blockbuster films like Battle: Los Angeles and Sucker Punch that make it happen. Time will tell, and it starts with the numbers Snyder is able to generate now.

We’ll be back on Sunday night to go over the numbers.

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