Imagining The Oscar Ceremonies of The Next Ten Years

Oscars Theater

The new Academy mindset that popular movies could also be culturally significant was a laudable shift, but it also caused some unfortunate casualties. The animated, live-action and documentary shorts were given their own awards ceremony in 2017, but it’s streamed on the internet and typically pulls in 5m-7m viewers on its own. Part of the appeal is that they include links to the movies that you can check out a few hours before the ceremony for free, and then they’re available through iTunes afterward.

The technical awards weren’t so lucky. Film Editing, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing were shifted to the non-streamed Scientific Awards. The official word was that it would trim the show to two and a half hours, but most insiders will tell you off the record that it happened to make sure the show is populated almost exclusively by famous faces.

They didn’t ostracize Visual Effects though?

Not after the organized slowdown in Summer 2013 that almost crippled the industry. Execs caught on really quick, and they’ve been hesitant to do anything to piss off that community, especially with how VFX’s influence has continued to grow.

And the show’s really down to two and a half hours?

Most years, yes. Sometimes it sneaks toward three depending on the producer. Cutting out six categories helped even though they finally added a category for Best Stunt Coordination in 2017 because it added a really cool montage to the program, and brought back the Academy Juvenile Award for years when youngsters particularly shine.

Of course, the changes also made room for longer commercial breaks. Coca Cola is popular as ever, you know.

It sounds like they’ve definitely adapted, but you said earlier that the Oscars have still lost some of their power.

That’s right.

Is it because they still couldn’t entice younger viewers to watch and stick around from year to year?

Only partially. What you’re referring to, I think, is the demographic problem AMPAS saw from the early 1990s through 2015. The median age of an Oscar broadcast viewer was 40 in 1992, but it was 47 in 2002 and 53 in 2012. That wasn’t the direction they wanted to go, especially since the Academy members’ own demographics looked almost exactly like the Republican Party. No one wanted to wait around for their audience to die out. They had to turn the new crop of adults into fans of the program.

And that was the biggest issue. It wasn’t unfair to look at the Oscar winners or the films left off nomination lists and see that the 60+ voters were firmly in charge.

With nature — this sounds terrible — running its course, and the Geek Oscars of 2016, that stigma melted away. I mean, think about it. The 60+ members of my time were all born in the 1960s anyway. They discovered movies in the 70s, and they all seemed a bit more welcoming to big popcorn flicks being lauded for their achievements beyond special effects and sound.

But why the weakening influence?

Because it’s really hard now to get the kinds of broad audiences that shows saw a decade ago. From 2018 to now, the sheer amount of quality media we have online has continued the trend of niches breaking off and forming around specific types of styles, stories and artists. We’re a million miles away from Johnny Carson, if you know what I mean.

2016 turned out to be the high water mark for that kind of giant blockbuster movie, and by the turn of the decade, studios had backed away from the tentpole model altogether because it was hard to get half a billion in worldwide box office sales. It’s decreased every year since, and maybe it’ll spring back at some point, but even streaming shows on major networks are tempering their expectations. They’ve had more than just each other to contend with for over 15 years now. In fact, one of the biggest shows out there is on Freddie W’s RocketJump YouTube channel. He’s contending with what used to be NBC now.

That’s incredible. Did anything else historically significant happen?

Wow. Probably more than a few things, but the first that jumps to mind is Open Transmission.

What’s that?

It was the first crowdfunded film to win a major award. It pulled in a little over a million on KickStarter in 2021, got released to massive praise in 2022 and just won Best Screenplay last night. Pretty crazy. I imagine we’ll see more sneak into the ceremony.

Okay, this might seem a little bit fluffy to ask, but how did the world remember Seth MacFarlane’s hosting job?

When was that?

At this year’s ceremony! How could you not remember?

Can you remember who hosted the Oscars in 2003 without looking it up?

Ah, a fair point. But still, it made major waves on Sunday. 

Now that you mention it, I remember that he hosted, but I suppose he did about like most hosts do in the long run. Few ever become noteworthy after the week of the show. Producers still turn to comedians and personalities. Nothing’s changed there.

And I know I said I wouldn’t help out your future Oscar predictions, but MacFarlane actually came back to the Oscars in 2018.

I had a feeling. He just said he’d never host again, but it’s hard to turn that kind of exposure down.

Oh, he wasn’t a host. He was awarded for scoring a Frank Sinatra biopic called Blue Eyes.

Did anyone make a big impression as host leading up to 2023?

Joseph Gordon-Levitt was a big hit. He’s hosted twice now.

You really are a Looper fan, eh?

The third one is still the best, but I like to watch the first from time to time.

I’m both desperate to know everything and to remain un-spoiled.

Well, you’ll have to stay un-spoiled because I’ve gotta run. Modern Family is on, and I haven’t missed an episode in 12 years.

Before you go, is there anything else you can tell us about the award’s future?

The statue is still heavier than people expect, the In Memoriam segment is still everyone’s bittersweet favorite part and Jack Nicholson jokes are still a mainstay of the opening monologues.

Some things never change. Thanks for taking the time out to tell us about the Oscars of 2023, Molly.

My pleasure!


What do you hope the Oscars of the future bring?

A veteran of writing about movies for nearly a decade, Scott Beggs has been the Managing Editor of Film School Rejects since 2009. Despite speculation, he is not actually Walter Mathau's grandson. See? He can't even spell his name right.

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