It’s not gonna take any magical enchantments for Warner Brother to get what they want. No ifs, ands, or Crucios, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 IS going to be #1 this weekend. It’s going to blow every other film on the charts from the dollar-wrangling sky. The only question is how badly, and, on Monday, how black and blue will the other films be.
Even if Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallow Part 1 weren’t the first part of the end of this franchise, it would make bank. No Harry Potter film has opened lower than $77.1 million, and no Harry Potter bowing in November has made less than $88.3 million in its opening weekend. In fact, the most amount any of the films has debuted with was in 2005 when Goblet of Fire pulled in $102.6 million in its first three days. It’s the only film of the series to open to more than $100 million, but that is more than likely to change right now.
You have to start considering the records Deathly Hallows might or might not break. The highest grossing opening weekend for November is *ugh* New Moon, which debuted to $142.8 million this time last year. The next three films on that list of November openings are all Harry Potter all the time. To make an educated guess where Deathly Hallows might fall on that list, you also have to consider the number of screens its opening on. At 4125 screens, it is opening on less screens than Order of the Phoenix (4285) and Half-Blood Prince (4325). This is surprising factoring in how hugely anticipated this films is, but WB’s decision (brave and smart decision many believe) to not release the film in converted 3-D might have played a factor in that.
So how much is Deathly Hallows really going to make here. In all sincerity, you can’t expect it to beat out New Moon’s awesome opening return. $142.8 million or higher is just a number doesn’t seem attainable here. What you can expect from Deathly Hallows Pt.1 is for it to take the #1 spot among Harry Potter openings. It will be out Goblet of Fire’s $102.6 million, and it could very well get into the $110-million or $120-million range before the weekend is out. The 3-D decision from WB is going to play a factor in it not breaking the November record, but, in the end, Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 is going to do just fine for itself, and we can muster up a little respect for the studio at the same time. That’s never a bad thing.
Break out your Aparaciums and your Expecto Patronums (I swear, I’m looking these up) and delve into Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 with the trailer right here:
Oh, there’s a movie opening against Deathly Hallows? Silly Russell Crowe. Silly Paul Haggis. Silly and hot Elizabeth Banks. Unfortunately, The Next Three Days probably wasn’t going to open to a glowing pile of gold no matter what it debuted against. The Deathly Hallows crowd and the Haggis crowd might mix a bit, but, for the most part, it’s going to be oil and water. Sadly, Crowe doesn’t seem to be the box office draw he once was. In fact, by himself, he may never have been much of one. Even Body of Lies where he had Leonardo DiCaprio to help along opened to $12.8 million. The Next Three Days might be slightly more serviceable to the general audience, but don’t expect any much higher than low double digits.
Liam Neeson and RZA are here, too. Honestly, they probably could have sold the film better. Judge for yourself. Check out the trailer for The Next Three Days right here:
While films like Megamind, Unstoppable, and Due Date have their general drops, something in the 40-50% range, and while Harry Potter is cleaning house up top, one film that might surprise box office watchers might be coming up from the bottom. Fair Game expands to 386 screens this weekend. If it carries over even a hint of the nearly $6000 per screen average it made last weekend, it could very well claim that #10 spot. It doesn’t hurt that films like Paranormal Activity 2, Saw 3D, and Jackass 3-D are dropping numbers like a lotto machine. After the barrage of bad buzz it’s generated, Skyline will probably be in that camp as well. Don’t expect Fair Game to pull in massive loads of cash. With a reported budget of $22 million, it’s not gonna end up being much of a success. However, you can expect to see it make the charts.
You know, it’s always good to see a film about girl power, especially when the girl at the forefront is as cute as Sally Hawkins. Made in Dagenham tells the true story of the Ford sewing machinists strike of 1969. Based on sexual discrimination, the walkout led to the Equal Pay Act of 1970. Okay, history lesson over. Bob Hoskins is in this. That’s really all you need to know. Eddie Valiant is alive, well, and still acting. You can see him this weekend, as Made in Dagenham opens in New York and L.A. You might even learn something about equal rights while you’re at it.
Girl power! Check out the trailer for Made in Dagenham right here:
[MADE IN DAGENHAM trailer]
Elsewhere in limited release are Heartless, the new horror film from director Philip Ridley opening in select cities; Guzaarish , a drama about magic and euthenasia (kind of like Harry Potter) opening in select cities ; White Material, starring Christopher Lambert and that’s all you need to know, opening at the IFC Center in New York City; William S. Burroughs: A Man Within, the new documentary about the Naked Lunch novelist, also opening at the IFC Center in New York City on Wednesday; and the drama Nothing Personal opening in New York and L.A.
Here’s how the top 10 is shaping up this weekend:
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 – $118.9m NEW
- Megamind – $16.7m (-42.4%)
- Unstoppable – $12.6m (-44%)
- The Next Three Days – $13.5m NEW
- Due Date – $7.7m (-49.9%)
- Morning Glory – $5.6m (-39.4%)
- Skyline – $4.8m (-58.5%)
- RED – $2.9m (-40%)
- For Colored Girls – $2.5m (-61.5%)
- Fair Game – $1.2m (+16.7%)
The weekend is sure to be an upswing from last weekend regardless of how much Harry Potter pulls in. It won’t, however, be able to surpass the $247 million made at the box office this time last year. As mentioned before, New Moon made up$142.8 million of that on its own, and the rest was helped by $34.1 million from the debuting Blind Side and $26.4 million from 2012. Not much this weekend will be helping boost the overall numbers, but Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 will do fine all on its own. Records might not be broken, but there won’t be any denying the cash being enchanted out of people’s wallets.
We’ll be back on Sunday night to go over the weekend numbers.