The Reject ReportFurious sits alone on a hill underneath a single tree that shades it. Its buddy Fast is out gallivanting around town with Vin Diesel and Paul Walker, jacking Supras and drinking Corona like it holds the key to eternal youth, and Furious is sad. That’s okay, Furious, we still like you.

And it’s not like Fast Five is going to open huge. It’s not as if we’re looking at another $70+-million opening for a Fast and Furious entry. Fast couldn’t do that without you. Oh, wait, the Rock is in this one, too. Yeah. It probably will. Sorry, Furious. We’ll catch you next time. Maybe.

BIG HITTERS

Halloween 5: The Revenge of Michael Myers. Star Trek V: The Final Frontier. Death Wish V: The Face of Death. The Dream Child. Seed of Chucky. Wrestlemania V featuring Hulk Hogan Vs. Randy Savage. What do all of these have in common? None of them instill much faith in Fast Five‘s box office hopes. I mean, sure, some of these movies were successes. Revenge of Michael Myers opened with a whopping $6.3 million, and those were 1989 numbers. That’s like $10.4 million in 2011.

Okay. Maybe that’s not all that impressive. Let’s face it, unless you’re the Harry Potter or a Star Wars franchise, your fifth installment isn’t going to be making much bank. Cue the Nos and turn up the Pitbull, because Fast Five is going to make a ton of money this weekend.

Aided by IMAX screens, the return of Diesel and Walker, and the introduction to Dwayne Johnson to the newly reformatted and actionier mix, Fast Five could very well have the biggest opening in the Fast and the Furious franchise. It’ll have to top the $70.9 million Fast and Furious opened with in early April 2009. That film still holds the April opening record, but records were meant to be broken. Look for Fast Five to do just that in what could be the start of the Summer movie season nudging its way a week or two into the back half of April.

Here’s some of that Fast we were talking about and it’s brought its friend, Furious, along for some vehicular carnage. Check out the Fast Five trailer right here:

Hoodwinked Too! – note the exclamation point because it means they mean freaking business with that “in addition to” idea – and Prom also open wide this weekend. While they might not be dividing much audience between them, they certainly won’t be giving the blockbuster action flick any kind of competition. The first Hoodwinked opened in January 2006 with $16.8 million, but this sequel probably won’t even match that. Especially with Rio raking in plenty of the family dollars that are to be spend this weekend.

Prom is probably going to favor even worse. It wants to be High School Musical. It acts like High School Musical. It isn’t High School Musical. Audiences are likely to stand Prom up – oh, someone get Nikki Finke on the line – as it will have a rough time even breaking into double digits.

A film that probably won’t even show up on the chart is Dylan Dog: Dead of Night. It stars Brandon Routh. You know, the guy who was Superman that one time about five years ago. It’s about vampires, werewolves, zombies, and the one man who beat them back into the darkness. Sounds like a winner, right? Maybe if it was opening on more than 1000 screens and had any kind of awareness going for it. As it is, Dylan Dog will likely make somewhere between $2 and 3 million, and its chances of even making the top 10 this weekend are about as good as Routh’s chances going toe-to-toe with Christian Bale. Professional.

FAMILIARITIES

It’s third weekend out will be the one Rio has to give up that #1 spot. It will likely be coming in ahead of the new releases not featuring  getaway cars and mass explosions. Rio won’t have much competition from the films released last weekend, either, as Madea’s Big Happy Family – I looked it up – , Water for Elephants, and African Cats will all have drops of around 50%. You can expect Rio to break past $100 million in domestic sales this weekend, too.

Both Hop and Insidious will be making their fifth appearance on the weekly top 10, a pretty impressive feat given the number of films released every weekend. Hop has long since passed that $100-million domestic mark, but it’s Insidious and the potential of it crossing $50 million this weekend that makes it the success story of the year to date. As The Hollywood Reporter indicated earlier this week, the FilmDistrict release, which reportedly cost $1.5 million, is the most profitable film of 2011 thus far. It expands that profitability this weekend and will likely do so in weeks to come, as well.

LITTLE OPENERS

You got your Takashi Miike movie in my samurai flick. Oh, yeah? Well you got your samurai flick in my Takashi Miike movie. With 13 Assassins we’ve got two great tastes that taste great together. This movie delivers exactly what fans of both will be wanting. An exciting sword-slicing epic combined with quirky yet lovable characters you can root for. That’s exactly what we want, and you can check 13 Assassins out on VOD right now. You can also listen to Cole’s interview with Miike on the Reject Radio. 13 Assassins opens in New York, L.A., and Austin.

Also opening in limited release are Cave of Forgotten Dreams opening in New York, L.A., and Chicago; Earthwork opening in New York; Sympathy for Delicious opening in New York and L.A.; The Robber opening in New York; That’s What I Am opening in select cities; Lebanon, PA opening in New York and Philadelphia; and Exporting Raymond opening in select cities.

Here’s how the weekend is shaping up:

  1. Fast Five – $73.4m NEW
  2. Rio – $16.1m (-38.5%)
  3. Hoodwinked Too! Hood Vs. Evil – $10.6m NEW
  4. Madea’s Big Happy Family – $10.3m (-58.8%)
  5. Prom – $9.9m NEW
  6. Water for Elephants – $9.2m (-45%)
  7. Hop – $6m (-50%)
  8. Insidious – $3.8m (-25.7%)
  9. Soul Surfer – $3.4m (-35.9%)
  10. African Cats – $3m (-50%)
  11. Dylan Dog: Dead of Night – $2.7m NEW

Thank you, Fast Five. You’re likely to bring the top 10 this weekend to a whopping $148.4 million, a nice little bump for the weekend before the Summer movie season officially begins. Some schools have already let out for the Summer, so these numbers could even be a bit conservative compared to what we might see come Sunday evening. Regardless, come this time next week, the wheels will have been greased and the road will have been adequately paved for the blockbusters to begin plowing on through.

We’ll be back on Sunday to go over the weekend numbers.

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